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Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2020-11-29T13:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16156/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-02T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0942 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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The M4 flare peaking at 13:11UT December 29, originating from an unnumbered
region at the East limb, was associated with a type II radio burst and EUV
wave.

In SoHO/LASCO C2 a corresponding CME is visible from around 13:25UT (the
true time of emergence in C2 view must be in the data gap between 12:48UT
and 13:25UT). The CME is directed well toward to the East of the Sun-Earth
line with a projected speed of around 1500 km/s. While the bulk is directed
off the Sun-Earth line the associated shock wave leaves an asymmetric full
halo signature in SoHO/LASCO C2 and C3 imagery.

The bulk of the CME is hence not expected to arrive to Earth but a glancing
blow and arrival of the shock wave is quite possible. That is expected late
December 1 or early December 2.
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________________________________________
From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Monday, November 30, 2020 4:52 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740)
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2020-12-02T00:00:00
time_uncertainty: 12
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 50

Lead Time: 35.30 hour(s)
Difference: -3.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2020-11-30T09:42Z

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